Legends at war

Arkansas vs. Kansas: A March Madness Breakdown

The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off with a first-round matchup in the West Region: the No. 10 seed Arkansas Razorbacks (20-13) face the No. 7 seed Kansas Jayhawks (21-12) on Thursday, March 20, at Amica Mutual Pavilion in Providence, Rhode Island. This game pits two storied programs and legendary coaches—John Calipari of Arkansas and Bill Self of Kansas—against each other in a battle that has been brewing over the careers of both coaches. With Arkansas returning to the Big Dance after missing last season and Kansas aiming to rebound from a subpar season by its pre-season number 1 standards, this matchup promises intensity, and a chance for both teams to set the tone for a deep tournament run.

History to be made again

This isn’t just another 7-vs-10 game. It’s a collision of coaching titans with six Final Four appearances between them—Self with two national titles (2008, 2022) and Calipari with one (2012). Their paths have crossed before in high-stakes settings, notably in the 2008 and 2012 national championship games when Calipari coached Memphis and Kentucky, respectively, against Self’s Jayhawks. The series was split in championship games, adding a layer of personal rivalry to this encounter. The head to head record is 7-6 in favor of Self. For Calipari, in his first year at Arkansas after a storied tenure at Kentucky, it’s a chance to prove his new squad can hang with the bluebloods. For Self, it’s about restoring Kansas’s legacy after a 21-12 campaign that saw them unranked by season’s end—a rarity for a program that started the year as a consensus top team.

The teams met earlier this season in a preseason exhibition on October 25, 2024, with Arkansas dominating 85-69 in Fayetteville. While exhibition results don’t count, the game offered a glimpse a t what could come in this matchup. Arkansas’s athleticism overwhelmed a Kansas squad missing key players like Hunter Dickinson. So, this time around it will be a true test. Arkansas missing key players in this matchup and Kansas now healthy, it sets the table to be an incredible matchup. Their last official NCAA Tournament meeting in 2023 saw Arkansas upset the No. 1 seed Jayhawks 72-71 in the second round, a dagger that ended Kansas’s title defense and propelled the Razorbacks to their third straight Sweet 16. History suggests a battle is bound to happen, one down to the buzzer.

Arkansas Razorbacks: Defense and a New Era

Arkansas enters with a 20-13 record, including an 8-10 mark in the SEC, in the toughest conference in basketball. The Razorbacks earned their 37th NCAA bid thanks to a late surge—winning four of their final five regular-season games—and key victories over Kentucky and Michigan. Calipari inherited a roster gutted by departures but rebuilt it with transfers like Johnell Davis (Florida Atlantic), Adou Thiero (Kentucky), and Zvonimir Ivisic (Kentucky), plus emerging bigs Jonas Aidoo and Trevon Brazile. Injuries plagued them early—Thiero’s knee and Boogie Fland’s thumb sidelined key contributors—but Fland’s reported return for the tournament adds a dynamic guard to the mix.

The Hogs’ strength is their defense, ranking in the top 25 for adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom. They lead the nation in blocked shots (thanks to Ivisic, Aidoo, and Brazile) and hold opponents under 32% from three-point range. Offensively, they’re inconsistent, averaging 74.4 points per game, but excel at getting to the free-throw line—a strength that proved decisive in the exhibition win over Kansas (18 more attempts). Davis (11.2 ppg) brings scoring punch and Final Four experience, while Thiero (15.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg) offers versatility. If Arkansas can force turnovers (they average 15.3 per game) and control the paint, they could exploit Kansas’s vulnerabilities.

Kansas Jayhawks: Experience Meets Inconsistency

Kansas’s 21-12 record and 11-9 Big 12 finish belie their preseason hype. Picked to contend for a title, the Jayhawks stumbled with a 6-7 stretch late in conference play and an early Big 12 Tournament exit against Arizona. Yet, their résumé boasts signature wins, and their No. 7 seed reflects a top-25 KenPom ranking. Self’s squad leans on veterans: fifth-year seniors Hunter Dickinson (17.6 ppg, 10.0 rpg), Dajuan Harris Jr. (9.2 ppg, 5.7 apg), and KJ Adams Jr. (9.0 ppg), plus transfer Zeke Mayo (14.5 ppg, 41.3% from three). Dickinson, a 7-1 center, is the fulcrum, dominating inside when healthy—he missed the exhibition loss but is back now.

Defensively, Kansas shines, ranking 11th in efficiency (92.7) and stifling opponents with length and experience. Offensively, they’re erratic, averaging 74.9 points but struggling from deep (inconsistent three-point shooting) and settling for mid-range jumpers rather than attacking the rim. Their depth—Rylan Griffin, AJ Storr, and others off the bench—offers upside, but cohesion has been elusive. After a third home loss at Allen Fieldhouse in March, Self apologized to fans, a sign of the season’s toll. Still, this is a team with NCAA pedigree: Kansas hasn’t lost in the first round since 2006.

Key Matchups and X-Factors

The paint will be a war zone. Dickinson versus Arkansas’s trio of shot-blockers—Ivisic (7-2, 2.0 bpg), Aidoo, and Brazile—could decide the game. If the Hogs limit Dickinson’s impact (below his 17.6 ppg average), they’ll force Kansas to rely on shaky perimeter shooting. If Dickinson exploits single coverage, Kansas could control the tempo. On the perimeter, Harris Jr.’s playmaking meets Arkansas’s aggressive guards—Fland and Wagner (11.1 ppg)—who’ll look to disrupt Kansas’s rhythm and push the pace.

Turnovers loom large. Arkansas thrives on chaos, while Kansas’s 4-6 ATS record in its last 10 games hints at sloppy stretches. Free throws could tip the scales again; Arkansas’s ability to draw fouls clashes with Kansas’s struggle to get to the line. The X-factor? Johnell Davis. If he heats up (he’s capable of 20+ points), Arkansas could steal this. For Kansas, Mayo’s three-point shooting (41.3%) could stretch the Hogs’ defense thin.

Prediction and Outlook

Betting odds favor Kansas (-4.5, -200 moneyline, over/under 145.5 per BetMGM), reflecting their experience and defensive edge. Yet, Arkansas’s late-season form (4-2-1 ATS) and upset history make them live underdogs (+165). The Hogs are peaking, while Kansas has limped in. The exhibition blowout doesn’t predict this outcome—both teams are different now—but it underscores Arkansas’s athletic advantage. Expect a grind: two top-20 defenses, physical bigs, and coaches who’ve seen it all.

Kansas’s veteran core should survive, but not easily. Dickinson will get his (15-18 points), and Harris Jr. will steady the ship late. Arkansas’s size and speed keep it close, with Davis and Thiero pushing back. The Jayhawks pull away in the final minutes, winning 78-73, covering the spread, and advancing to face the St. John’s-Omaha winner. For Arkansas, a loss ends Calipari’s debut hog tournament run early. For Kansas, it’s a step toward redemption—though deeper questions about their ceiling remain.

This game isn’t just a first-rounder; it’s about legacy. Who will leave their mark in the history books? We will all know after Thursday night.